Ken's Newsletter

I erred in predicting presidential election outcome, dread new Trump administration

I erroneously predicted the outcome of the presidential election, thinking Democrat Kamala Harris would make history as the first female president because former president Donald Trump is so divisive. I even joked to a pro-Trump singer that the local GOP party organization would conduct a victory celebration at the address of a cemetery.

After watching CNN on Tuesday night reporting the election returns, I concluded I erred and figuratively began eating my words; the aftertaste was bitter. Politicians and pundits immediately began analyzing why Trump beat Harris. I’ll defer to historians.

As a newspaper reporter, I limited my involvement in politics to covering speeches, and occasional rallies, and interviews. I spoke my mind to friends and acquaintances, but I had to be careful because conservatives were constantly looking for evidence of liberal bias. I didn’t even sign petitions, and rejected a friend request on Facebook from a city councilwoman who challenged the mayor in an upcoming election.

Now retired, I enjoy the full rights of citizenship. To quote humorist Will Rogers, “I belong to no organized party; I am a Democrat.”  I’ve gotten involved with both the Yavapai County Democratic Party and Prescott Indivisible, which is affiliated with the national organization. My involvement included forwarding articles from the Arizona Mirror, ProPublica and other high-quality news organizations to Mike Fogel, a Chino Valley educator who ran unsuccessfully for state Senate in Legislative District 1 in 2022 and 2024. I attended abortion rights rallies at the Yavapai County Courthouse Plaza and sought signatures to qualify Proposition 139 for Tuesday’s ballot. Voters backed Proposition 139, which enshrines the right to an abortion, by a wide margin.

Democrats showed enthusiasm at a rally Oct. 27 at the plaza. They listened to brief

speeches from U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly; his wife, former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords; Senate candidate Ruben Gallego; Susan Rice, former diplomat and national security adviser; and others.

The mood was different at the rally for GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake at a chilly Monday night at the plaza. Lake, who likely will lose to Gallego, concluded the rally after U.S. Reps. Eli Crane and Andy Biggs, successful new congressional candidate Abe Hamadeh and state Sen. Wendy Roger took the stage. They pledged fealty to Trump and spoke of the Democrats as being their enemies. The crowd shouted “Kari, Kari, Kari.” One man, who said he is a friend of Trump’s, wore a suit, red tie and a

Trump mask. I didn’t recognize him or know anyone in the crowd.

During the Democratic rally, the crowd chanted, “We’re not going back.” Unfortunately, we are going back, with Trump likely to become even more unhinged in his second administration. He has vowed to be a dictator on Day One, seek revenge on his political foes and launch mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. Republicans will gain control of both the Senate and House of Representatives.  The Supreme Court recently granted Trump substantial immunity from prosecution on election subversion charges. With fewer guardrails in place, Trump could be well on his way to railroad America on the road to neofascism, not greatness.

I was among about 100 people who attended the “Max Capacity-Election *After Party*” of the Yavapai Democrats Wednesday evening in the Federal Building downtown. While it took place during the evening, it was more of a “morning” or “mourning” after party, given the election results. Participants were sociable, listened to pep talks and ate appetizers, but there was little to be peppy about.

Fogel, who lost handily to a carpetbagging QAnon adherent, expressed his frustrations. He ran as a Clean Slate with House candidates Jay Ruby and Marcia Smith. (Fogel is in the middle of the photo below.)

“Our opponents did not face us, did not engage us,” he said. “That is not democracy. That is a single-party district. They are complacent at best and corrupt at worst.” He ran unsuccessfully in 2020 against Ken Bennett, a mainstream conservative Republican who grew up in Prescott and previously served as Senate president and secretary of State. Former state Rep. Mark Finchem, who lost his bid to become secretary of state two years ago and unsuccessfully sued to overturn his defeat, beat Bennett in the GOP primary. Fogel said he is not sure whether he’ll run again.

Others were disappointed with the election results. Gordon Ralph, a retired high school science teacher who lives in Prescott, told me, “I’m really scared as to what is going to happen with the (GOP) control of the Senate, control of the presidency and maybe the House .… If the Democrats don’t carry the House, God help us!”

Ralph fears Republicans plan to impose a national abortion ban, allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to gain control of Ukraine, and purge 20 percent of the federal workforce and replace them with “Trump suck-ups. It is like rewarding people for voting for you.”

I also spoke to social worker Erica Ferguson, whom I recognized from meeting months ago at the plaza. “I can definitely say that I am glad that I got involved locally with canvassing,” she said. “You can say I am momentarily depressed, but we will have to carry on.”

Three young Frenchwomen who volunteered for Kamala Harris’ campaign with the Yavapai Democrats gained insight into American politics. One of them, Claire Rabes, said she became “very integrated” into Yavapai County politics. “The country is very divided. We have to talk to everyone. Some Republicans voted for Harris. The political institutions are weakened here.”

I told Rabes and one of her peers that I read the seminal work, Democracy in America, by French historian Alexis de Tocqueville, who visited the United States five decades after its founding, I’d urge my French and American friends to read It Can’t Happen Here, a novel about the rise of a dictatorship after the 1936 elections, by Sinclair Lewis. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen here and democracy survives a second Trump presidency.